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The 2007 elections is seen as a referendum on the Arroyo administration. And based on surveys made by Pulse Asia (link here) and Ibon Foundation (link here), it is expected that the people will elect senators that will probably vote to convict Gloria Arroyo in an impeachment trial.
Take a look at Pulse Asia’s list:
(1) former Senator Legarda (48.6%)
(2) Senator Francis N. Pangilinan (39.0%)
(3) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson (34.9%)
(4) Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (34.2%)
(5) Senator Ralph G. Recto (33.1%)
(6) former Senator Vicente C. Sotto III (31.0%)
(7) Atty. Aquilino Pimentel III (29.9%)
(8) Taguig-Pateros Representative Alan Peter S. Cayetano (29.5%)
(9) former Senator Greogorio B. Honasan (27.7%)
(10) San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito-Estrada (23.8%)
(11) Ilocos Norte Representative Imee R. Marcos (23.1%)
(12) former Senator John Henry Osmeña (22.7%)
NB: I find it weird that a virtual unknown (Aquilino Pimentel III) appears on the list.
Here is Ibon’s list (presented with choices):
1 Legarda, Loren
2 Pangilinan, Francis
3 Marcos, Imee
4 Cayetano, Alan Peter
5 Pimentel, Aquilino III
6 Recto, Ralph
7 Escudero, Francis
8 Villar, Manuel Jr.
9 Arroyo, Joker
10 Sotto, Vicente III
11 Failon, Ted
12 Ejercito-Estrada, Jayvee
However, some sectors find the list of senatoriables unpalatable. And the non-existence (so far) of administration ticket (it’s too early, anyway) does not help.
Some have a wish list of senatoriables: see here and here.
Basically, I am seeing the play in the game: to battle the seemingly inevitable opposition win, attack the undecided (which I believe most of the middle class are), repeat the same mantra over and over. Simple: push the undecided into the decision that the opposition is no better, that there is no choice. The same play since 2005.
It seems that the opposition (the vocal one) is again unwittingly doing its part in the game.
I guess our only hope is for a third flank - a set of senatorial candidates that is acceptable to the undecided. While this will play for the administration’s advantage (dividing the opposition), this is the only way (in my mind) to convince the undecided and the majority of the so-called middle class. By presenting candidates who are acceptable, untainted, competent, and qualified, the no-choice reasoning will no longer be in play.
NB: Theodore Roosevelt’s Bull Moose tragedy comes into mind.
For the main opposition to win, first it must present a list of acceptable and qualified candidates. Second, it must convince the undecided of its fitness to be chosen by the people. Third, not play according to administration’s playbook. The opposition really needs a single strategist.
The third flank will divide the votes. The beauty of this is that it affects both sides. The third flank should instead campaign against the administration and at the same time show that it is better than the main opposition.
Otherwise, the administration only has to present a so-so but credible slate and enjoy the fireworks. The opposition will self-destruct if it plays to the administration’s tune.
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The sad reality is that those who are qualified do not want to run. We are a country of dreamers but very few movers. This is the reason why predatory politicians prey on the hapless/clueless masses. The middle class has shrunk to an inconsequential entity due to rising poverty. The Filipino is in survival mode and would vote for anyone who would promise them a better life. With their perception of how bad the administration is, anybody from the opposition will do regardless of their qualification or values.
I agree that those who are qualified do not want to run. But, there are those who want to run but are very much qualified. Unfortunately, skepticism is the current trend nowadays; pare-pareho lang sila, as some will say.
But that is actually what Arroyo wants us to do: to be undecided. It works in her favor.
Well, let’s hope the opposition can present a good slate.
[...] I’ve been rethinking my suggestion of a Third Plank after re-reading Patricia Evangelista’s Sunday column. It is the time for Senate slates to be drafted and announced (January 15 is the magic date), and some people are already speculating, as was last November, about possible candidates for senator. John Marzan is already in 2nd draft of his list of candidates to vote for. [...]